Investment Outlook 2026 : Editorial – Private Markets 2026: Normalization as an Opportunity
- Jan 20
- 3 min read
Private Markets Square – Newsletter - Édition n°3 - Janvier 2026
Editorial – Private Markets 2026: Normalization as an Opportunity
After several years marked by a rapid rise in interest rates and a sharp slowdown in liquidity, 2026 opens a new cycle for private markets. A cycle that is less euphoric than that of 2021, but healthier, clearer, and more supportive of long-term value creation.
AirFund’s Investment Outlook 2026 highlights a shift in performance drivers:
Multiple expansion gives way to asset quality
Financial leverage becomes secondary to operational value creation
Manager and strategy selectivity regains a central role
In this environment, the European mid-market, infrastructure, and certain private debt strategies appear as structural pillars of future wealth allocations.
This edition of Private Markets Square provides a concise and practical overview tailored to wealth management professionals.
Expert View – Investment Outlook 2026: Key Takeaways
Europe vs. United States: The Gap Is Narrowing
According to AirFund’s Investment Outlook 2026, private markets are entering a phase of constructive normalization, characterized by a gradual recovery in investment activity and exits, combined with stronger price discipline.
Three key messages for private investors:
1. Performance Will No Longer Come from Multiples.
Between 2020 and 2024, a significant portion of performance stemmed from valuation expansion. From 2026 onward, value creation will primarily rely on:
Organic growth
Operational improvement
Disciplined buy-and-build strategies
2. Europe Regains Strong Relative Attractiveness
Structurally more mid-market focused and less expensive than the United States, Europe benefits from:
More attractive valuations
A rebound in exits
Growing interest from international investors (38% of European deal value in 2025)
3. Economic Growth Is Increasingly… Private
The stock of companies held by private equity funds now significantly exceeds the listed universe, with an estimated 2.3x ratio. For wealth allocations, this means that traditional equity exposure no longer captures the full scope of economic growth.
Fund Insights
Adélie Remploi – Investing in Emerging European Champions
Selective growth equity strategies are fully aligned with the new cycle described in the Outlook 2026.
Adélie Remploi’s investment in Brevo is an emblematic example. Brevo achieved unicorn status following a funding round exceeding €500 million, confirming the emergence of European technology champions capable of competing on a global scale (Maddyness, December 2025).
This investment highlights several key trends for 2026:
Growth driven by strong fundamentals
Primarily operational value creation
Long-term alignment between entrepreneurs and investors
📌 A particularly relevant approach in a cycle where discipline and quality prevail.
Riverside Europe – European Mid-Market at the Core of Resilience
Riverside Europe’s convictions are closely aligned with AirFund’s Investment Outlook 2026.
In his analysis, Karsten Langer emphasizes that European resilience is built on:
Industrial reshoring
The energy transition
A dense network of undercapitalized family-owned businesses, forming the core of the lower mid-market
In a normalization environment, this segment offers:
Attractive entry points
Strong operational value creation potential
Better risk control than highly valued large caps
Inside AirFund – Launch of Ask AirFund, the Intelligent Assistant for Wealth Advisors
AirFund is launching Ask AirFund, an intelligent chatbot designed to help wealth advisors analyze and compare funds available on the platform.
Ask AirFund enables users to ask, in natural language, all key questions regarding:
Strategy and investment thesis
ESG / SFDR criteria
Access conditions and documentation
Fund comparisons
The objective is simple:
👉 Save time
👉 Strengthen client education
👉 Facilitate decision-making in an increasingly complex environment
🔍 Ask AirFund relies exclusively on the data and documents available on the AirFund platform, within a secure and compliant framework.
Events & Community – Highlights and Upcoming Events
Recap: Grand Forum du Patrimoine
AirFund participated in the Grand Forum du Patrimoine, a key event to engage with professionals on new private asset allocation dynamics and the growing demand for education, transparency, and digital tools.
Save the Date – Private Markets Square 2026
The next edition of Private Markets Square will take place in 2026. A full day dedicated to major allocation trends, manager feedback, and private market distribution challenges.
Conclusion
The Investment Outlook 2026 confirms a strong conviction at AirFund: in a more normalized cycle, private markets become more demanding — but also more rewarding for disciplined investors.
Selectivity, diversification, and advisory support remain the keys to building robust and sustainable wealth allocations.
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Legal Notice
Information intended exclusively for wealth management professionals. Marketing communication. AirFund is a Financial Investment Advisor (CIF), registered with ORIAS under number 24004281, and a member of ANACOFI. Please consult the prospectuses and key information documents before making any investment decision.
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