Against this backdrop, Partners Group anticipates a "central" environment of around 2% global growth (5-year average) and inflation between 3.5% and 4%, with a gradual decline in key interest rates (Fed ~3%, ECB ~1.25% in their central scenario), which should favor both investment and exits.[1]
Private equity – business is back, but price is no longer everything
Over the period 2020–2024, a significant portion of performance came from increased valuation multiples, driven by strong pressure to deploy raised capital. In 2026 and for the following cycle, the driver will be different: buy better, improve businesses, and exit intelligently.
https://fundsmagazine.optionfinance.fr/analyses/private-equity-et-creation-de-valeur-mythe-ou-realite.html
Private equity – business is back, but price is no longer everything
Over the period 2020–2024, a significant portion of performance came from increased valuation multiples, driven by strong pressure to deploy raised capital. In 2026 and for the following cycle, the driver will be different: buy better, improve businesses, and exit intelligently.
🇺🇸In the United States: prices are normalizing, activity is picking up
In terms of valuations, we are seeing a real landing: the average US buyout multiple has fallen to 12x EV/EBITDA (last 12 months to the end of September 2025), compared with 12.8x in 2024, closer to pre-Covid standards[2].
For a wealth investor, this is an important signal: performance in 2026 will come less from rising multiples and more from corporate growth and operational improvements.
Liquidity. Exits are picking up again, but unevenly, and remain driven by very large transactions: the value of US exits fell by 41% in Q3 vs. Q1 (to $126 billion), but still amounts to $516 billion YTD, already above the total for 2024.
Two trends that will continue in 2026:
- The rise of platform LBOs, which enable the consolidation of fragmented markets, with expected volumes ≥ 25% of total investment activity in the United States in 2026.
- Increased concentration in fundraising: new entrants are struggling and finding it difficult to raise capital. First-time funds in the US will raise only $8.4 billion across 41 funds in 2025, a historic low.[3].
🇪🇺 Europe: valuation remains attractive with a resurgence in outflows
Prices/valuations.
Europe remains attractive because it is structurally more mid-market and often trades at a discount to the United States. This attractiveness reveals a significant trend (consensus outlook): US investors accounted for 38% of European deal value in the first three quarters of 2025 (vs. 31% in 2024), a dynamic that could intensify in 2026.
European exits are picking up again: the value of exits jumped to €98 billion in Q3 2025 (+80% compared to the previous quarter), and the number of deals increased by 23%.
As for the IPO market, it is picking up again, but in a more selective manner: PitchBook lists 181 IPOs in 2024, compared with only 115 in 2025 to date, but with significantly higher quality. Profitable IPOs account for around 90% YTD, compared with 66.4% in 2024.
A trend to note: the number of companies backed by private equity far exceeds the number of listed companies. The ratio of companies financed by private equity funds to listed companies is estimated to be 2.3x (a record high).[6]
This is a powerful argument in terms of assets: a growing share of growth is private, so the traditional "equity" allocation no longer covers the entire economy.
Private Debt – attractive returns provided you are demanding
🇺🇸United States: spread compression, competition from liquid markets
Direct lending activity remains strong, but Cambridge Associates warns that competition, driven by the rise of syndicated loans and retail vehicles, is weighing on margins. Future returns will depend more on selectivity.
We recommend focusing on less correlated pockets, such as asset-based finance or certain specialized credit segments, in order to regain diversification and a more resilient profile.
A major legacy issue concerns semi-liquid vehicles, which are growing rapidly and contributing to pressure on margins. Cambridge estimates outstanding amounts at ~$350 billion by the end of 2024, representing +60% growth in two years.
🇪🇺Europe: relative advantage in spreads and protection
The relative value of private debt is better in Europe: wider spreads, lower leverage, and stronger creditor protections.
The market anticipates a bifurcation: direct lending to large caps could disappoint due to margin compression, while selective mid-market lending would remain more profitable and resilient.
Liquidity. HarbourVest highlights a structural trend: liquidity is increasingly being provided by secondary markets. The first half of 2025 saw a record $103 billion, up 51% between 2024 and 2025, with a projection of more than $210 billion for the year.
Risk 2026: It is important to distinguish between "high returns" and "poor credit analysis." Cambridge points out that certain recent bankruptcies (examples cited: First Brands, Tricolor) illustrate the impact of inadequate credit analysis.
Infrastructure: the asset class benefiting from profound megatrends
In 2026, infrastructure continues to be a key focus for long-term investors.
United States: Growth driven by strong trends linked to the development of AI
AI is taking infrastructure into a new dimension: even in a moderate scenario, $3.7 trillion in investment would be needed "in the coming years" to meet demand for data centers.
This development also impacts electricity demand in the United States, which could grow by 8% over five years, particularly due to data centers (approximately three times faster than estimated two years ago).
In terms of performance, 2025 confirms the robustness and resilience of the asset class: private infrastructure funds generated an annualized IRR of around 11% over 5 and 10 years.
For private clients, the appeal is strong because it is very clear for long-term investors: a particularly attractive combination of "return and inflation protection."
Europe: growth sustained by the energy transition, which is attracting foreign capital.
Infrastructure benefits from contractual cash flows and plays an undeniable role in stabilizing portfolios. Europe, with its strategic positioning, population, and the gradual withdrawal of certain public players, is attracting increased global interest.
Europe captured 34% of global private capital fundraising in 2025 (a record), and $57 billion was raised from infrastructure funds in Europe at the end of September (projected to exceed $75 billion for the year), which should support the market in the coming years.[12]
In 2026, Europe will continue to be driven by networks, mobility, energy, and regulated assets, with risks mainly political and regulatory in nature.
Evergreen: the promise of "organized" liquidity, not guaranteed
Evergreen/semi-liquid structures (often with buyback windows) are gaining ground because they meet strong demand in wealth management, but also among certain institutional investors: accessing private markets without tying up capital for 8–12 years.
Evergreen outstanding amounts are becoming very significant and exceeded $640 billion in mid-2025, representing exponential growth.
But be careful: "semi-liquid" does not mean "liquid like a euro fund." Liquidity depends on management:
- pocket of cash,
- gate mechanisms,
- diversification,
- and ability to sell assets (particularly via the secondary market).
Well-constructed, evergreens are likely to be one of the key formats in 2026, as they make private markets more accessible, more regular, and easier to integrate into asset allocation.
Conclusion: 2026, a healthier cycle... and strategic confirmation for AirFund
At AirFund, these outlooks highlight the relevance of the choices we make: a strong focus on buyouts and infrastructure, mainly in the mid-market and with a marked preference for Europe. In a normalizing environment, it is precisely these segments, which are more disciplined in terms of pricing, closer to the operational front line, and often more resilient, that currently offer the best potential combination of performance and risk control.
These convictions, coupled with structured diversification (strategies, managers, vintages, geographic areas), enable us to build more robust portfolios that are capable of weathering cycles while capturing growth in this asset class, which has become essential to the financing of the economy.
Finally, 2026 will mark an important milestone for AirFund with the arrival of evergreen funds: a new way of accessing private markets that is more consistent, more transparent, and better suited to wealth management expectations, while maintaining high standards in terms of asset quality, liquidity management, and risk control.
[1] Partners Group - Private Market Outlook 2026
[2] HarbourVest – 2026 Market Outlook
[3] Pitchbook - 2026 US Private Equity Outlook
[4] Harbourvest – 2026 Market Outlook
[5] Harbourvest – 2026 Market Outlook
[6] Pitchbook – 2026 EMEA private capital outlook
[7]Partners Group - Private Market Outlook 2026
[8]Cambridge Associate - Finding Value Amid the Hype
[9] Harbourvest – 2026 Market Outlook
[10]Cambridge Associate - Finding Value Amid the Hype
[11] Cambridge Associate - Finding Value Amid the Hype
[12] Financial Times – Europe captures record share of private capital
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